I told you so!

Hey Everyone,

Yes, I haven't posted in three weeks - however, this is not because everyone at ICM hasn't been following the market, but rather its because we all have been following the market very closely. Lets look at what I predicted last at the beginnings of earnings season:

Coca-Cola -

My prediction: Neutral to Negative after the earnings report.

Actual: Down about 4% after the earnings report.

Verdict: Pretty good.

Google -

My prediction: Either up 8%-13% or down 15%-20%

Actual : Down 12% immediately after earnings, currently down 13%

Verdict: Probably too zealous when estimating the downside, but was within 2% of my range...not bad at all.

Ebay:

My prediction: A blind guess of down based on likely consumer spending slowdown

Actual: Down because of undesirable growth rate.

Verdict: I guess I did have a 50% chance of being right here, but I suppose my previous two correct answer do add some validation to my guess here.

Capital One

My prediction: Technically, I didn't make a prediction in my earnings season article, but I did talk about Capital One and Discover in the article immediately following my earnings season article. My views, if you don't remember, were highly favorable

Actual: When I wrote my favorable review of CapitalOne, the stock was trading at about 36. A day or two after the earnings report the stock was resting at about 42....that's 17% for the mathematically disinclined.

AMD

My prediction: My exact word were "AMD better get its act together or Intel will have another antitrust suit on its hands"

Actual: Before the earnings report AMD spiked up to $5.30 from $4.70

...and immediately after the earnings report AMD dropped to $4.65

...a week later it hit a new 52-week low of $4.19

Verdict: Good for me....bad for AMD.

Microsoft-

My prediction: I said it wasn't going to go down, but it probably won't go up either

Actual: The two days before the earnings report it spiked from 25.15 to 27.52 and after the earnigns report it settled back down to about 25.50.

Verdict: Looks like no up or down from Microsoft yet. Like I said during my prediction, the whole proxy battle will obscure any positive results.

Financials

My prediction: Bad, Very Bad

Actual: Well, I suppose they weren't as terrible as I thought, but the momentary rally that we saw the day of the first major financial releases quickly subsided. So I suppose, the response wasn't great...but its not the very bad that I had anticipated.

Verdict: My mistake was not recognizing that most of the downside had already been priced in. Can't win them all I suppose.

Pharmaceuticals:

My prediction: Unrealistic stock inflation

Actual: Dow Chemical bought Rohm and Hass, Briston Meyers Squibb just made an offer for ImClone, Genetech had an earnings miss but their stock still went up, Glax0SmithKline announced its drug didn't do what it was supposed to do and the stock still went up, Pfizer reported great numbers and the stock went up about 4%.

Verdict: Mostly right, but had a few misses in the sector.

Overall Score: About 6.5 out of 8 right. I'm counting my pharamaceutical prediction as half right and my finacials prediction as wrong.

Predictions for stocks only: 6 out of 6.

*Smirks*

I told you so.

-Mansij Hans, E.I.T.
Member, Intigril Capital Management

Disclosure: Intigril Capital Management is long microsoft at time of publicationof the "I told you so!" article.